Toyota Rethinks Hydrogen Cars as EVs Gain Ground

A decade after Toyota’s former president, Akio Toyoda, boldly proclaimed that the launch of the Mirai, a hydrogen-powered car, would mark a “turning point” for the automotive industry, the world’s largest carmaker is rethinking its bet on hydrogen.

The Mirai, which was supposed to spearhead a green revolution, has struggled to make an impact, with just 27,500 units sold since its debut in 2014.

Now, Toyota is shifting its focus, pivoting from passenger vehicles to hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles, in an attempt to salvage its ambitious vision for the future.

“I can’t say for sure that it’s a bright future for hydrogen,” admitted Hiroki Nakajima, Toyota’s chief technology officer, at a press event in November 2023.

Toyota is hedging its bets on hydrogen, no longer so sure that the fuel will assume the leading role in the automotive landscape as electric vehicles continue to eclipse all comers.

The Japanese company is scaling back plans for hydrogen-powered passenger cars, but is going big with hydrogen-powered trucks, buses, and vans.

In November, Toyota unveiled a hydrogen-electric hybrid van prototype, which is set to be tested in Australia, marking a potential new chapter for the company’s hydrogen strategy.

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In addition, the company is teaming up with Isuzu to mass-produce hydrogen fuel-cell trucks and has already secured deals to supply hydrogen buses in cities like Tokyo and Strasbourg.

But hydrogen fuel cells—promising zero emissions and quick refueling times—still face stiff competition from the electric vehicle market. EVs have seen rapid advancements in battery technology and lower production costs, while hydrogen infrastructure remains limited, with high production costs and few refueling stations.

Experts are skeptical. “On all levels, hydrogen has been a failure for passenger cars,” said James Hong, head of energy transition at Macquarie Capital.

For Toyota, the bet on hydrogen is not over. The company has forged alliances with Hyundai and BMW and continues to study the opportunities of hydrogen for commercial vehicles.